Published on: 2025-10-31

Intelligence Report: ‘Campaign of destruction’ under way in Sudan – RTE

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The situation in Sudan, particularly in the Darfur region, is characterized by severe humanitarian crises and potential ethnic cleansing, primarily driven by the actions of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The most supported hypothesis suggests a deliberate campaign of ethnic targeting and destruction by the RSF. Confidence in this assessment is moderate due to limited independent verification. Immediate international intervention and diplomatic pressure are recommended to prevent further atrocities and ensure humanitarian access.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The RSF is conducting a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing and destruction in Darfur, targeting specific ethnic groups to consolidate control and eliminate opposition.

Hypothesis 2: The RSF’s actions are primarily military operations aimed at securing strategic locations and resources, with civilian casualties and humanitarian crises being collateral damage rather than intentional targets.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Hypothesis 1 assumes intentional targeting of ethnic groups by the RSF.
– Hypothesis 2 assumes the RSF’s primary goal is military dominance rather than ethnic targeting.

Red Flags:
– Reports of mass killings and ethnic cleansing lack independent verification.
– RSF’s claims of adherence to military discipline contrast with documented abuses.
– Potential bias in reporting from humanitarian sources with vested interests.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continuation of violence in Sudan could lead to regional instability, increased refugee flows, and potential international intervention. The humanitarian crisis may worsen, with diseases like cholera exacerbating the situation. The RSF’s actions could provoke retaliatory attacks, further escalating the conflict. Geopolitically, Sudan’s instability might attract external actors seeking to influence the outcome.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to pressure the RSF and Sudanese government to cease hostilities and allow humanitarian access.
• Consider imposing targeted sanctions on RSF leaders to deter further atrocities.
• Prepare for potential refugee crises in neighboring countries.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: International pressure leads to a ceasefire and humanitarian access.
  • Worst Case: Escalation into full-scale ethnic conflict with regional spillover.
  • Most Likely: Continued low-intensity conflict with intermittent humanitarian access.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Mathilde Vu, Sudan Advocacy Manager, Norwegian Refugee Council
– Abu Lulu, RSF fighter implicated in abuses

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional conflict, humanitarian crisis, ethnic cleansing