Published on: 2025-12-05

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Intelligence Report: Al-Assad inner circle plotting Syrian uprisings from Russian exile Report

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Former loyalists to Bashar al-Assad, now in Russian exile, are reportedly funding and organizing potential fighters to instigate uprisings against Syria’s new government. The effort is led by Major-General Kamal Hassan and Rami Makhlouf, who are competing for influence among Syria’s Alawite minority. Despite their efforts, the likelihood of a successful uprising is currently low due to internal discord and lack of external support. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Hassan and Makhlouf’s efforts will lead to significant uprisings in Syria. This is supported by their financial investments and attempts to mobilize fighters. However, the lack of cohesion between the two leaders and mistrust among the Alawite community contradict this hypothesis.
• Hypothesis B: The efforts by Hassan and Makhlouf will not result in significant uprisings due to their internal rivalry, lack of Russian support, and limited trust from the Alawite community. This hypothesis is supported by reports of low fighter morale and financial discrepancies.
• Assessment: Hypothesis B is currently better supported due to the lack of unity between Hassan and Makhlouf, the absence of Russian backing, and the skepticism from the Alawite community. Indicators such as increased cohesion between the two leaders or external support could shift this judgment.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The financial and logistical capabilities of Hassan and Makhlouf are as reported; the Alawite community’s mistrust is significant; Russian support remains withheld.
• Information Gaps: Detailed motivations and plans of Hassan and Makhlouf; the exact level of support or opposition within the Alawite community; potential shifts in Russian policy.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in sources close to Hassan and Makhlouf; manipulation of financial data; possible disinformation from involved parties.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could destabilize Syria’s fragile transition and potentially reignite sectarian violence. The competition between Hassan and Makhlouf may further fragment the Alawite community, weakening their influence.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased regional instability and influence from external actors like Russia and Iran.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Heightened risk of sectarian violence and insurgency activities.
• Cyber / Information Space: Possible use of digital platforms for recruitment and propaganda by Hassan and Makhlouf.
• Economic / Social: Economic strain from funding militias; social unrest within the Alawite community and broader Syrian society.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase intelligence monitoring of communications and financial transactions related to Hassan and Makhlouf; engage with regional allies to assess potential support for Syria’s government.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for Syria’s government; strengthen partnerships with regional and international stakeholders to counteract destabilizing influences.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Hassan and Makhlouf’s efforts are thwarted, leading to stabilization in Syria.
  • Worst: Successful uprisings lead to renewed civil conflict and regional instability.
  • Most-Likely: Continued low-level unrest with limited impact due to internal discord and lack of support.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Major-General Kamal Hassan
• Rami Makhlouf
• President Ahmed al-Sharaa

7. Thematic Tags

Regional Focus, counter-terrorism, Syrian conflict, sectarian violence, Russian influence, militia funding, Alawite community, geopolitical instability

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Deconstruct and track propaganda or influence narratives.

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