Published on: 2025-11-07

Intelligence Report: MSF warns of missing civilians in Sudans El-Fasher – Digital Journal

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The situation in El-Fasher, Sudan, involves significant humanitarian concerns with potential mass graves and ethnic violence. The most supported hypothesis is that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are involved in ethnically targeted violence and possible mass killings. Confidence level is moderate due to limited direct evidence and communication barriers. Recommended action includes international pressure for independent investigations and humanitarian access.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The RSF is conducting ethnically targeted violence, including mass executions, in El-Fasher, as evidenced by satellite imagery and survivor accounts.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The violence and mass graves are the result of broader conflict dynamics in the region, with multiple actors involved, not solely the RSF.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the direct correlation between RSF control and the emergence of mass graves, as well as survivor testimonies. Hypothesis B lacks specific evidence linking other actors to the mass graves.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Satellite imagery accurately represents mass grave sites; survivor accounts are reliable.
– **Red Flags**: Limited communication from the region may obscure the full scope of events; potential bias in survivor testimonies due to trauma.
– **Blind Spots**: Lack of on-ground verification and independent investigations.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The situation may escalate ethnic tensions and lead to further regional instability. There is a risk of international humanitarian crises, with potential spillover effects into neighboring countries. The conflict could also disrupt regional economic activities and increase refugee flows, exacerbating global displacement issues.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage international organizations to facilitate independent investigations and ensure humanitarian access.
• Implement diplomatic measures to pressure Sudanese authorities for transparency and accountability.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Immediate international intervention leads to cessation of violence and humanitarian relief.
  • Worst: Continued violence results in large-scale ethnic cleansing and regional destabilization.
  • Most Likely: Ongoing conflict with intermittent international attention and limited resolution.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Javid Abdelmoneim
– Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
– Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, ethnic violence, regional focus