Published on: 2025-11-08

Intelligence Report: Pakistan mulls rupee-backed stablecoin as country sees 25B crypto opportunity – Cointelegraph

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Pakistan’s consideration of a rupee-backed stablecoin presents a significant economic opportunity, potentially unlocking billions in growth. The most supported hypothesis is that Pakistan will proceed with the stablecoin initiative to enhance financial inclusion and capitalize on the global crypto market. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor regulatory developments and potential partnerships with international crypto firms.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Pakistan will successfully launch a rupee-backed stablecoin, leveraging it to improve financial access and reduce remittance costs, thereby capturing a significant portion of the $25 billion crypto opportunity.

Hypothesis 2: Regulatory delays and technological challenges will hinder the launch of the rupee-backed stablecoin, causing Pakistan to miss out on the immediate economic benefits of the crypto market.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– The Pakistani government and financial institutions are capable of implementing the necessary regulatory framework in a timely manner.
– There is sufficient technological infrastructure to support the stablecoin initiative.

Red Flags:
– Potential resistance from traditional financial sectors.
– Lack of clarity on the regulatory framework and its enforcement.
– Overestimation of the immediate market impact and adoption rate.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The successful launch of a rupee-backed stablecoin could position Pakistan as a leader in the regional crypto market, enhancing financial inclusion and reducing reliance on traditional banking systems. However, failure to address regulatory and technological challenges could lead to missed economic opportunities and potential reputational damage. Additionally, increased crypto adoption may attract cyber threats and necessitate robust cybersecurity measures.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with international crypto firms to gain insights and technical expertise.
• Develop a clear and enforceable regulatory framework to ensure compliance and investor confidence.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful launch and widespread adoption of the stablecoin, leading to significant economic growth and improved financial inclusion.
  • Worst Case: Regulatory and technological setbacks delay the project, resulting in lost economic opportunities and increased market skepticism.
  • Most Likely: Gradual implementation with initial challenges, followed by steady adoption as regulatory and technological issues are addressed.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Zafar Masud
– Faisal Mazhar
– Bilal Bin Saqib
– Andreessen Horowitz
– Dragonfly Capital
– VanEck Ventures
– Coinbase Venture
– Endeavor Catalyst

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, economic development, financial inclusion, regulatory challenges, digital currency