Published on: 2025-11-06

Intelligence Report: The momentum for EU enlargement is growing Ukraine Moldova and the Western Balkans are making progress towards EU membership – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment is that the momentum for EU enlargement is indeed growing, with Ukraine and Moldova at the forefront of this process. The most supported hypothesis is that the EU is committed to expanding its membership to include these countries, driven by geopolitical and economic considerations. The confidence level in this assessment is moderate, given the complexities involved. Recommended action includes monitoring the progress of negotiations and preparing for potential geopolitical shifts in the region.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The EU is genuinely committed to expanding its membership to include Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans, driven by a strategic interest in enhancing regional stability and security.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The EU’s expressed commitment to enlargement is primarily rhetorical, aimed at maintaining influence in the region without a genuine intention to expedite membership, due to internal EU challenges and geopolitical risks.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the evidence, particularly the EU’s actions such as the integration of Ukraine and Moldova into the “roam like home” area and the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). However, Hypothesis B cannot be entirely dismissed due to the EU’s historical caution and internal challenges.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the EU has the capacity and political will to integrate new members without significant internal disruption. It is also assumed that Ukraine and Moldova will continue to meet EU standards and reforms.
– **Red Flags**: Potential red flags include the decline in democracy and rule of law in some candidate countries, which could stall the process. Additionally, internal EU political dynamics and economic concerns could slow down enlargement.
– **Blind Spots**: The potential impact of external actors, such as Russia, on the enlargement process is not fully addressed.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical Risks**: Accelerated EU enlargement could provoke tensions with Russia, potentially leading to increased geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe.
– **Economic Risks**: Rapid integration of new members could strain the EU’s economic resources and require significant financial support for infrastructure and development.
– **Cybersecurity Risks**: New member states may present vulnerabilities that could be exploited by adversaries, necessitating enhanced cybersecurity measures.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Mitigation**: Strengthen diplomatic engagements with Russia to manage potential tensions. Enhance support for democratic reforms in candidate countries.
• **Opportunities**: Leverage the enlargement process to boost EU influence and stability in Eastern Europe.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: Successful integration of Ukraine and Moldova, leading to enhanced regional stability and economic growth.
  – **Worst Case**: Geopolitical tensions escalate, leading to conflict and economic strain within the EU.
  – **Most Likely**: Gradual progress with intermittent challenges, requiring ongoing diplomatic and economic efforts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Kstutis Budrys
– European Commission

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, EU enlargement, geopolitical strategy, regional stability