Published on: 2025-11-12

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Intelligence Report: Under-Secretary-General Warns Security Council of Growing Instability in South Sudan Urges Government Recommit to Peace Agreement – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

With a moderate confidence level, the most supported hypothesis is that South Sudan is at a critical juncture where failure to adhere to the peace agreement could lead to widespread violence and further destabilization. It is recommended that the international community, particularly the UN, AU, and IGAD, intensify diplomatic efforts and provide targeted support to ensure compliance with the peace agreement.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The South Sudanese government will recommit to the peace agreement, leading to stabilization and gradual improvement in security and humanitarian conditions. This hypothesis is supported by the government’s assurances and the international community’s pressure.

Hypothesis 2: The South Sudanese government will fail to adhere to the peace agreement, resulting in increased violence, political instability, and humanitarian crises. This is supported by ongoing ceasefire violations, internal political tensions, and the lack of progress in implementing the transitional security arrangements.

Hypothesis 2 is more likely given the current evidence of ceasefire violations, political detentions, and the stalled implementation of key security arrangements.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions: It is assumed that the international community has sufficient leverage to influence South Sudan’s political actors. It is also assumed that internal political dynamics within South Sudan are primarily driven by power struggles rather than external influences.

Red Flags: The ongoing detention of opposition leaders and the increase in ceasefire violations are significant red flags indicating potential non-compliance with the peace agreement.

Deception Indicators: Public assurances by the South Sudanese government may not reflect actual intentions or capabilities to implement the peace agreement.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The failure to adhere to the peace agreement could lead to a resurgence of large-scale conflict, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and potentially destabilizing the broader region. This could result in increased refugee flows into neighboring countries, further straining regional resources and potentially leading to cross-border tensions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Actionable Steps: The UN, AU, and IGAD should increase diplomatic engagement with South Sudanese leaders, emphasizing the consequences of non-compliance. Additionally, they should enhance monitoring mechanisms to ensure transparency and accountability in the peace process.
• Best Scenario: The government recommits to the peace agreement, leading to improved security and humanitarian conditions.
• Worst Scenario: Widespread violence erupts, leading to a humanitarian catastrophe and regional instability.
• Most-likely Scenario: Continued low-level conflict and political instability, with sporadic progress in the peace process.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Reik Machar, Salva Kiir, Sima Sami Bahous, Solomon Ayele Dersso

7. Thematic Tags

Regional Focus: South Sudan, Peace Agreement, Political Instability, Humanitarian Crisis

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Deconstruct and track propaganda or influence narratives.

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