Published on: 2025-10-30

Intelligence Report: US Urged to End Arms Sales to UAE as It Backs Genocidal Paramilitary in Sudan – Truthout

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the UAE’s continued arms supply to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan exacerbates the humanitarian crisis and may contribute to genocide. The strategic recommendation is to impose a halt on arms sales to the UAE and enforce international sanctions to prevent further atrocities. Confidence level: Moderate, due to reliance on third-party reports and potential biases in source material.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The UAE is knowingly supplying arms to the RSF, which are being used to commit atrocities in Sudan, including genocide. This is supported by reports of arms transfers and the RSF’s actions in Sudan.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The UAE’s arms sales are not directly intended to support genocidal activities but are part of broader geopolitical strategies, such as countering regional threats or maintaining influence in Sudan.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to direct evidence of arms transfers and the RSF’s documented actions in Sudan. Hypothesis B lacks direct evidence linking UAE’s strategic interests to the RSF’s genocidal actions.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– Assumption: The UAE has control over the end-use of its arms sales.
– Red Flag: Potential bias in source reporting, as the information may be influenced by political agendas.
– Blind Spot: Lack of direct evidence from UAE officials regarding their intentions behind arms sales.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– Continued arms sales to the UAE may lead to further destabilization in Sudan and exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.
– Potential escalation of regional conflicts if arms are diverted to other groups.
– Economic risks include sanctions on the UAE, affecting international trade relations.
– Geopolitical risks involve strained US-UAE relations and potential backlash from other Gulf states.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Implement an immediate suspension of arms sales to the UAE pending a thorough investigation.
• Engage with international partners to enforce a comprehensive arms embargo on Sudan.
• Best-case scenario: Successful international intervention leads to a reduction in violence and humanitarian relief in Sudan.
• Worst-case scenario: Continued arms flow exacerbates the conflict, leading to increased regional instability.
• Most likely scenario: Partial compliance with international pressure results in reduced arms sales but ongoing regional tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Chris Van Hollen
– Sara Jacobs
– Rashida Tlaib
– Gregory Meeks
– Nancy Okail

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, arms embargo, humanitarian crisis, regional stability