THURSDAY 12 NOVEMBER 2026OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY · UPDATED FOUR TIMES A DAY

National security · Strategic Assessment · Threat level High

Taliban-Russia Diplomatic Talks and Terrorism-Linked Issues

The 8th Moscow Format consultations reportedly ended on 2026-11-12 without a joint statement after the Taliban objected to language linking Afghanistan to terrorism; the Daily Times commentary says the Taliban accepted similar language at the 7th round.

48 min ago9 min readLow confidence

How sure we are · “Unlikely”

40%

RemoteEven chanceAlmost certain

Competing explanations we weighed

H-A46%

H-B27%

H-C17%

H-D8%

Today in 60 seconds

22:54 ATHENS

1
Law-enforcement takedowns of the StealC infostealer network are disrupting it but not durably degrading it.
Cybersecurity · Moderate confidence
2
The vehicle-borne attack on a Frontier Corps post on the N-25 highway in Mastung, Balochistan, shows continued militant capacity for complex attacks on fixed s…
Counter-Terrorism · Moderate confidence
3
US force posture in the UK and the Gulf appears to be adapting to Iranian-linked threats.
National Security Threats · Low confidence
4
Economic and energy infrastructure are now primary targets in two theatres.
Regional Conflicts · Moderate confidence
5
The 8th Moscow Format consultations reportedly ended on 2026-11-12 without a joint statement after the Taliban objected to language linking Afghanist…
National security · Low confidence

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Regional conflicts · Operational Update

Chinese Military Purges and Implications for Taiwan Contingency Readiness

Available reporting supports the judgment that Xi Jinping’s removal of senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officials has tightened political control while disrupting senior leadership and…

49 min ago9 min readModerate confidence

Regional conflicts · Operational Update

Trump and Putin Scheduled to Discuss Ukraine Peace Settlement in Shenzhen, China

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on 12 November that Vladimir Putin will discuss 'the full range of issues' on ending the war in Ukraine with Donald Trump at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18…

50 min ago9 min readModerate confidence

National security · Strategic Assessment

US Military Asset Relocation from UK and Gulf Bases Amid Regional Security Concerns

Al Jazeera reports that the US pulled 12 B-1 Lancer bombers from RAF Fairford in October and a dozen aircraft from RAF Mildenhall in early November.

51 min ago9 min readModerate confidence

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Cybersecurity

The weekly assessment · Issue 24

Weekly Intelligence Assessment: 2026-11-01 — 2026-11-08

Key judgments by region, what changed since last week and what to watch next. Every Sunday.

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Weekly intelligence assessment 2026-11-01 — 2026-11-08 Key judgments · Regional outlook · Indicators to watch WorldWideWatchers

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