Published on: 2025-04-14

Intelligence Report: 13 million displaced as Sudan war enters third year UN – Bangkok Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing conflict in Sudan has resulted in the displacement of 13 million individuals, with significant humanitarian and geopolitical implications. The conflict, primarily between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has intensified, particularly in the Darfur region. The situation is exacerbated by famine, ethnic violence, and a fractured national landscape. Immediate international intervention and strategic planning are critical to address the humanitarian crisis and stabilize the region.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The conflict in Sudan, which began on April 15, 2023, has led to severe humanitarian crises, including widespread displacement and famine. The RSF’s recent offensive in Darfur, targeting El-Fasher and surrounding camps, has resulted in over 400 deaths and the displacement of 400,000 individuals. The conflict has divided Sudan, with the army controlling the north and east, while the RSF holds much of Darfur and parts of the south. Ethnic violence and reprisals are escalating, posing significant risks to regional stability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses several strategic risks:

• Humanitarian Crisis: The displacement of millions and the onset of famine threaten regional stability and international security.
• Regional Instability: The division of Sudan into territories controlled by different factions increases the risk of prolonged conflict and regional spillover.
• Economic Impact: The conflict disrupts economic activities, exacerbating poverty and hindering development efforts.
• Security Threats: Rising ethnic violence and potential for further escalation pose significant security threats to neighboring countries and international interests.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• International diplomatic efforts should be intensified to mediate a ceasefire and initiate peace talks.
• Humanitarian aid should be increased to address immediate needs, focusing on food security and medical assistance.
• Support for regional organizations to enhance conflict resolution and peacekeeping capabilities.
• Monitoring and reporting mechanisms should be strengthened to document human rights abuses and ensure accountability.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful international mediation leads to a ceasefire and the initiation of peace talks, stabilizing the region and allowing for humanitarian aid distribution.

Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict leads to further displacement, increased ethnic violence, and regional instability, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

Most likely scenario: Continued conflict with intermittent ceasefires, resulting in prolonged humanitarian challenges and regional tensions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations involved in the conflict and humanitarian response:

• Abdourahouf Gnon-Konde
• Doctors Without Borders
• Mirjana Spoljaric
• International Organization for Migration
• United Nations