Published on: 2025-04-14

Intelligence Report: 13 Million Displaced As Sudan War Enters Third Year UN – International Business Times

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing conflict in Sudan has resulted in the displacement of 13 million individuals, with significant humanitarian implications. The conflict, primarily between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has intensified in regions like Darfur, leading to widespread famine and violence. Immediate international intervention is necessary to address the humanitarian crisis and prevent further escalation.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The conflict in Sudan, which began on April 15, 2023, has led to severe humanitarian and geopolitical consequences. The displacement of 13 million people includes 8.6 million internally displaced persons and 3.8 million refugees. The RSF’s recent offensive in Darfur, particularly targeting El-Fasher, has exacerbated the crisis, with over 400 reported deaths and 400,000 individuals displaced from Zamzam camp. The conflict has effectively divided Sudan, with the army controlling the north and east, and the RSF holding much of Darfur and parts of the south.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The conflict poses significant risks to regional stability and international security. The humanitarian crisis, characterized by famine, violence, and mass displacement, threatens to spill over into neighboring countries, potentially destabilizing the region. The division of Sudan into territories controlled by different factions increases the risk of prolonged conflict and complicates peace negotiations. Economic interests, particularly in resource-rich areas, are at risk due to ongoing instability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Initiate diplomatic efforts to mediate a ceasefire and facilitate peace talks between conflicting parties.
• Increase humanitarian aid and support for displaced populations, focusing on food security and medical assistance.
• Enhance international monitoring and reporting mechanisms to document human rights violations and hold perpetrators accountable.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful international mediation leads to a ceasefire and the initiation of peace talks, reducing violence and stabilizing the region.
Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict results in further displacement and humanitarian crises, with potential regional spillover.
Most likely outcome: Continued sporadic violence and humanitarian challenges, with slow progress towards conflict resolution.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations involved in the conflict and humanitarian response:

• Abdourahouf Gnon-Konde – Involved in reporting displacement figures.
• Annalena Baerbock – Provided commentary on the humanitarian situation.
• Mirjana Spoljaric – Commented on the civilian impact of the conflict.
• Doctors Without Borders – Reported on the conditions of displaced individuals.
• International Organization for Migration – Provided data on displacement from Zamzam camp.