Published on: 2025-04-21

Intelligence Report: 15 Potential Successors to Pope Francis – Bangkok Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The potential succession of Pope Francis involves a diverse group of cardinals with varying backgrounds and expertise. Key figures include Pietro Parolin, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and Matteo Maria Zuppi, among others. Each candidate brings unique strengths and challenges that could influence the Catholic Church’s future direction. Strategic recommendations focus on monitoring developments within the Vatican and preparing for potential shifts in church policies and global influence.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Diverse backgrounds of candidates, strong diplomatic ties, and experience in global religious affairs.
Weaknesses: Potential internal divisions within the church, varying stances on controversial issues.
Opportunities: Potential for renewed focus on global peace initiatives and interfaith dialogue.
Threats: Geopolitical tensions, resistance to change within conservative factions.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The interactions between candidates’ regional influences and global church policies could amplify risks or create opportunities. For instance, a candidate with strong ties to Asia or the Middle East could shift focus towards those regions, impacting global religious dynamics.

Scenario Generation

Best Case: A successor who fosters global unity and addresses pressing social issues.
Worst Case: A divisive figure exacerbating internal church conflicts.
Most Likely: A moderate leader balancing tradition with modern challenges.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The succession could lead to shifts in church policies, impacting global religious and political landscapes. Emerging threats include potential geopolitical tensions and internal resistance to policy changes. Systemic vulnerabilities may arise from differing regional priorities and ideologies.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor developments within the Vatican closely to anticipate policy shifts.
• Engage in dialogue with key religious and political stakeholders to mitigate potential conflicts.
• Prepare for scenario-based outcomes to adapt strategies accordingly.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Pietro Parolin, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Matteo Maria Zuppi, Claudio Gugerotti, Jean Marc Aveline, Anders Arborelius, Mario Grech, Peter Erdo.

6. Thematic Tags

(‘national security threats, regional focus, religious dynamics, geopolitical implications’)