Published on: 2025-07-15

Intelligence Report: 4 Where China is seen as an ally or threat – Pew Research Center

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report assesses global perceptions of China as either an ally or a threat, based on survey data from various regions. Key findings indicate that China is predominantly viewed as a threat in Asia-Pacific countries, while in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, it is more often seen as an ally. Strategic recommendations include monitoring shifts in regional alliances and preparing for potential economic and security challenges posed by China’s global influence.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases in regional threat assessments have been identified and corrected through structured challenges, ensuring a balanced view of China’s influence.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting suggests a high likelihood of increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, with moderate escalation risks in economic and security domains.

Network Influence Mapping

Mapping of China’s influence reveals strong ties with middle-income nations, particularly in Africa and Latin America, potentially impacting global power dynamics.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The perception of China as a threat in Asia-Pacific countries poses significant security risks, potentially leading to regional instability. Economic dependencies on China in Africa and Latin America could result in vulnerabilities if geopolitical tensions escalate. Cross-domain risks include cyber threats and economic coercion, necessitating comprehensive risk management strategies.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic engagement with Asia-Pacific allies to counterbalance China’s influence and mitigate security risks.
• Develop economic resilience strategies for nations heavily reliant on China to reduce potential vulnerabilities.
• Scenario-based projections suggest a best-case scenario of strengthened regional alliances, a worst-case scenario of increased geopolitical tensions, and a most likely scenario of continued strategic competition.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report does not specify individual names, focusing instead on regional and national perceptions of China.

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, economic influence, regional alliances, geopolitical dynamics