East Timor has a historic opportunity to break ASEAN deadlock on Myanmar – Al Jazeera English


Published on: 2025-02-12

Intelligence Report: East Timor has a historic opportunity to break ASEAN deadlock on Myanmar – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

East Timor is poised to join ASEAN, potentially influencing the bloc’s approach to the Myanmar crisis. With a history of overcoming oppression, East Timor can leverage its democratic values to advocate for accountability and justice in Myanmar. The strategic recommendation is for East Timor to push for ASEAN’s referral of Myanmar to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which could shift the regional dynamics and enhance international focus on Myanmar’s post-coup atrocities.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

Scenario Analysis

East Timor’s accession to ASEAN could lead to various scenarios:
– **Scenario 1**: East Timor successfully influences ASEAN to adopt a firmer stance on Myanmar, leading to increased international pressure on the junta.
– **Scenario 2**: ASEAN remains indecisive, and East Timor’s efforts are marginalized, resulting in continued deadlock.
– **Scenario 3**: East Timor’s advocacy results in ASEAN referring Myanmar to the ICC, significantly altering the regional approach to the crisis.

Key Assumptions Check

– ASEAN’s current indecisiveness is partly due to the lack of a strong moral voice within the bloc.
– East Timor’s democratic values and history of overcoming oppression position it uniquely to influence ASEAN’s policy.
– The international community is likely to support ASEAN’s referral of Myanmar to the ICC if initiated by East Timor.

Indicators Development

– Increased diplomatic engagement between East Timor and other ASEAN members.
– Public statements from East Timor advocating for ICC involvement in Myanmar.
– Changes in ASEAN’s official stance or policy documents regarding Myanmar.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The inclusion of East Timor in ASEAN could lead to a shift in the bloc’s dynamics, potentially breaking the current deadlock on Myanmar. This shift could enhance regional stability by fostering accountability and justice. However, there is a risk that East Timor’s efforts may not gain sufficient support, leading to continued inaction. Additionally, there is a risk of backlash from Myanmar’s military government, which could destabilize the region further.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

  • East Timor should actively engage with ASEAN members to build consensus for referring Myanmar to the ICC.
  • ASEAN should consider revising its consensus-based decision-making process to allow for more decisive action on human rights issues.
  • International stakeholders should support East Timor’s efforts by providing diplomatic and logistical assistance.

Outlook:

– **Best-case scenario**: East Timor successfully influences ASEAN to refer Myanmar to the ICC, leading to increased international pressure and potential resolution of the crisis.
– **Worst-case scenario**: ASEAN remains indecisive, and East Timor’s efforts are marginalized, resulting in continued human rights abuses in Myanmar.
– **Most likely scenario**: East Timor’s accession to ASEAN leads to increased dialogue and gradual shifts in the bloc’s approach to Myanmar, but significant changes take time to materialize.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report references key individuals and entities involved in the situation without specifying roles or affiliations:

  • East Timor
  • ASEAN
  • Myanmar
  • International Criminal Court (ICC)
  • National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar

East Timor has a historic opportunity to break ASEAN deadlock on Myanmar - Al Jazeera English - Image 1

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