Published on: 2025-06-24

Intelligence Report: My Are you presuming most people are stupid test – Substack.com

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The article challenges the notion that people are inherently ignorant or incapable of understanding complex issues, particularly in the context of AI and societal predictions. It argues against the “sleepwalk bias,” where people are presumed to be passively heading towards disaster without taking corrective actions. The report highlights the importance of recognizing human adaptability and intelligence in addressing challenges, including those posed by AI technologies.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Adversarial Threat Simulation

While the article does not directly address cyber adversaries, the discussion on AI’s impact on critical thinking skills suggests potential vulnerabilities in educational systems that could be exploited by malicious actors.

Indicators Development

The article identifies behavioral patterns, such as reliance on AI for essay writing, which could indicate a broader trend of diminished critical thinking skills among students.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Predictive modeling could be used to assess the long-term impacts of AI on education and societal intelligence, considering both positive and negative outcomes.

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

The article itself serves as a stress test for cognitive biases, challenging the assumption that people are generally incapable of making informed decisions.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The article suggests that underestimating human intelligence and adaptability could lead to flawed policy decisions. In the context of AI, there is a risk of over-reliance on technology, potentially leading to a decline in critical thinking skills. This could have cascading effects on educational systems and workforce readiness, impacting economic and national security.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage educational institutions to balance AI integration with traditional critical thinking exercises to enhance student learning outcomes.
• Conduct further research into the long-term impacts of AI on cognitive skills and societal intelligence.
• Scenario-based projections: Best case – AI enhances learning and decision-making; Worst case – AI dependency erodes critical thinking; Most likely – A mixed outcome requiring adaptive strategies.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Stefan Schubert, M Kosmyna

6. Thematic Tags

AI impact, education, cognitive skills, societal intelligence, critical thinking