Published on: 2025-06-28

Intelligence Report: Alawite Women in Syria Kidnapped in Broad Daylight Under HTS Rule – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report highlights the alarming trend of kidnappings targeting Alawite women in Syria, particularly under the control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The abductions are reportedly used as a tactic of intimidation and ransom, exacerbating fears among the Alawite community. Immediate strategic actions are recommended to address this humanitarian issue and prevent further destabilization in the region.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface events: The abductions occur in broad daylight, indicating a breakdown of law and order in HTS-controlled areas.
Systemic structures: The lack of effective governance and law enforcement in these regions allows such crimes to persist.
Worldviews: The targeting of Alawite women reflects deep-seated sectarian tensions and animosities.
Myths: The narrative of using women as pawns in conflict underscores the broader societal issues of gender-based violence.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The kidnappings could destabilize neighboring regions, prompting refugee flows and international condemnation. Economic dependencies on regional stability may be threatened, impacting humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts.

Scenario Generation

Best case: International intervention leads to improved security and the release of abducted individuals.
Worst case: Escalation of sectarian violence and further kidnappings destabilize the region.
Most likely: Continued sporadic abductions with limited international response, maintaining a climate of fear.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The pattern of abductions poses significant risks, including increased sectarian violence and potential for international intervention. The systemic vulnerabilities in governance and law enforcement exacerbate these threats, potentially leading to broader regional instability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing and cooperation with regional partners to track and prevent further abductions.
• Support initiatives aimed at strengthening local governance and law enforcement capabilities.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to address sectarian tensions and promote reconciliation.
• Scenario-based projections: Best case involves successful diplomatic interventions; worst case sees increased violence; most likely scenario involves continued instability with sporadic improvements.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Abeer Suleiman, a 50-year-old woman, is among those abducted. Her case highlights the personal impact of these broader trends.

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, human rights, sectarian conflict, regional stability