Published on: 2025-06-29

Intelligence Report: UNHCR sees sharp increase of Afghan returns in adverse circumstances from Iran to Afghanistan – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The UNHCR reports a significant rise in Afghans returning from Iran under challenging conditions, potentially destabilizing Afghanistan’s fragile situation. The forced returns exacerbate humanitarian needs, with half of Afghanistan’s population already reliant on aid. Immediate international intervention is crucial to provide sustainable reintegration support and prevent further instability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

– **Surface Events**: Increased Afghan returns from Iran.
– **Systemic Structures**: Implementation of Iran’s return deadline and lack of international support.
– **Worldviews**: Regional instability and humanitarian crisis perceptions.
– **Myths**: Belief in the inevitability of Afghan instability and displacement.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The forced returns may strain Afghanistan’s resources, leading to increased regional instability. Neighboring countries could face spillover effects, including heightened refugee flows and security challenges.

Scenario Generation

– **Best Case**: International community provides substantial support, enabling sustainable reintegration and stabilization.
– **Worst Case**: Continued forced returns lead to humanitarian collapse and regional conflict escalation.
– **Most Likely**: Partial support results in ongoing instability and cyclical displacement.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The forced returns could destabilize Afghanistan further, increasing the risk of conflict and humanitarian crises. This situation may also exacerbate regional tensions, impacting economic and security dynamics. The lack of international support could lead to a protracted humanitarian emergency.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Mobilize international resources to support sustainable reintegration of returnees.
• Enhance coordination with regional partners to manage potential spillover effects.
• Develop contingency plans for increased displacement and humanitarian needs.
• Scenario-based projections suggest prioritizing immediate aid to prevent worst-case outcomes.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Arafat Jamal

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, regional stability, forced migration