Published on: 2025-07-05

Intelligence Report: The World Could Get Carved Up into These 3 Blocs as Trump Tariffs Accelerate Deglobalization – Fortune

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The global economic landscape is shifting towards a tripolar world divided into three major trading blocs led by the United States, China, and the European Union. This transformation is accelerated by tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, which are prompting a retreat from globalization. The potential division of the world into these blocs could significantly impact global GDP and trade dynamics, necessitating strategic adjustments by nations and businesses.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

The surface events include the imposition of tariffs and the subsequent geopolitical realignments. Systemic structures are characterized by the formation of trading blocs. Worldviews are shifting towards protectionism and regionalism, while myths of globalization’s inevitability are being challenged.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The formation of these blocs could lead to increased economic dependencies within each bloc, while conflicts may arise from competitive trade policies and resource allocation.

Scenario Generation

Divergent narratives include a cooperative global recovery, a fragmented economic landscape with isolated blocs, or a hybrid scenario with selective partnerships across blocs.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Under uncertainty, the most likely scenario is the establishment of three distinct economic blocs, with a moderate probability of inter-bloc conflicts arising from trade disputes.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The division into trading blocs presents risks such as increased trade barriers, reduced economic growth, and potential geopolitical tensions. Cybersecurity threats may rise as nations protect economic interests. Military posturing could increase in contested regions, and economic vulnerabilities may be exposed as nations realign trade dependencies.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Mitigate risks by diversifying trade partnerships and investing in regional alliances.
• Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect economic and strategic interests.
• Scenario-based projections: Best case – cooperative economic recovery; Worst case – trade wars and economic isolation; Most likely – gradual adaptation to new economic blocs.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Donald Trump, Ursula von der Leyen

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus