Published on: 2025-07-06

Intelligence Report: UNHCR Needs Intensify as 14 Million People Return to Afghanistan – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is facing a critical funding shortfall as 14 million people return to Afghanistan, driven by forced returns and deteriorating conditions in host countries. The situation presents significant humanitarian and regional stability challenges. Immediate international support is required to address the needs of returnees and prevent further destabilization.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface Events: A dramatic increase in returnees, particularly from Iran and Pakistan, with daily arrivals reaching unprecedented levels.

Systemic Structures: Inadequate infrastructure and resources at border crossings, compounded by regional political pressures and economic constraints.

Worldviews: Host countries are increasingly viewing Afghan refugees as a burden, leading to restrictive policies.

Myths: The belief that returning to Afghanistan will lead to stability and prosperity is contradicted by ongoing crises.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The mass return of refugees is likely to strain Afghanistan’s already fragile socio-economic systems, potentially leading to increased internal displacement and regional instability. Neighboring countries may face heightened security concerns and economic pressures.

Scenario Generation

Best Case: International community provides adequate funding, ensuring safe and dignified returns, and stabilizing the region.

Worst Case: Continued funding shortfalls lead to humanitarian crises, increased regional tensions, and potential spillover into Europe.

Most Likely: Partial funding is secured, but challenges persist, leading to prolonged instability and humanitarian needs.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The return of millions to Afghanistan under harsh conditions poses significant risks, including potential radicalization, increased poverty, and health crises. The situation may exacerbate regional tensions and lead to broader geopolitical instability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Urgently increase international funding to support UNHCR efforts in Afghanistan.
• Enhance diplomatic engagement with host countries to ensure voluntary and safe returns.
• Develop long-term strategies for economic development and infrastructure improvement in Afghanistan.
• Scenario-based projections suggest prioritizing immediate humanitarian aid to prevent worst-case outcomes.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Arafat Jamal

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, regional stability, refugee management