Published on: 2025-07-12

Intelligence Report: ‘An unending horror story’ Gangs and human rights abuses expand in Haiti – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report highlights the escalating gang violence and human rights abuses in Haiti, particularly in the Artibonite and Centre departments. The violence has led to significant civilian displacement and increased food insecurity. The gangs are consolidating power, posing a threat to regional stability and potentially increasing transnational crime. Immediate international intervention is recommended to restore order and support Haitian authorities.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface events include the expansion of gang violence and human rights abuses. Systemic structures involve weak state security forces and the formation of self-defense groups. The prevailing worldview is one of lawlessness and impunity. The underlying myth is the inevitability of violence in the absence of effective governance.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The expansion of gang control could destabilize neighboring regions, affecting the Dominican Republic and increasing illegal arms trafficking. Economic dependencies on regional trade may suffer, leading to broader economic instability.

Scenario Generation

– Best Case: International intervention stabilizes the region, restoring governance and reducing violence.
– Worst Case: Gangs further consolidate power, leading to a failed state scenario with widespread regional instability.
– Most Likely: Continued violence with intermittent international support, leading to prolonged instability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The consolidation of gang power in Haiti poses significant risks, including increased human trafficking and arms smuggling. The potential for regional destabilization is high, with cascading effects on neighboring countries’ security and economies. The lack of effective governance could lead to a humanitarian crisis, exacerbating food insecurity and displacement.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate international intervention to support Haitian security forces and restore order.
• Enhance border security to prevent the spread of violence and illegal trafficking.
• Provide humanitarian aid to address food insecurity and support displaced populations.
• Scenario-based projections suggest a focus on strengthening governance and regional cooperation to mitigate risks.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Volker Türk
– Ravina Shamdasani
– Ulrika Richardson

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, human rights violations, regional instability, transnational crime