Published on: 2025-07-18

Intelligence Report: US Government’s Proposal to Ban Chinese Technology in Submarine Cables

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The US government is considering a ban on Chinese technology in submarine cables to safeguard national security and economic interests. This move aims to protect critical infrastructure from foreign adversaries, particularly China. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has outlined measures to enhance the security of subsea cables, which are vital for global internet traffic and financial transactions. Recommendations include adopting a presumption of denial for licenses involving adversarial states and implementing stringent cybersecurity requirements.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases were identified and addressed through structured challenge methods, ensuring a balanced assessment of the threat posed by foreign technology in critical infrastructure.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting was used to evaluate the likelihood of conflict escalation due to the proposed ban, considering geopolitical tensions and economic dependencies.

Network Influence Mapping

Relationships between state and non-state actors were mapped to assess the impact of the ban on global communication networks and economic partnerships.

Adversarial Threat Simulation

Hostile behaviors were modeled to identify vulnerabilities in submarine cable infrastructure, emphasizing the need for enhanced security measures.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The proposed ban could lead to increased geopolitical tensions, particularly with China, and may disrupt global supply chains. There is a risk of retaliatory measures impacting US businesses operating in China. Cybersecurity threats could escalate as adversaries seek alternative methods to compromise critical infrastructure. The economic impact includes potential delays in AI infrastructure development and increased costs for securing subsea cables.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance collaboration with allies to develop secure and resilient subsea cable networks.
• Invest in domestic technology solutions to reduce reliance on foreign vendors.
• Implement robust cybersecurity protocols to protect existing infrastructure.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Strengthened national security with minimal economic disruption.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of trade tensions leading to significant economic impact.
  • Most Likely: Gradual implementation with moderate geopolitical and economic adjustments.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Brendan Carr

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, geopolitical tensions, economic security