Published on: 2025-07-20

Intelligence Report: Is DeepSeek a New Voice Among LLMs in Public Opinion Simulation – Arxiv.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

DeepSeek, an open-source large language model (LLM), demonstrates significant potential in simulating public opinion, particularly on social issues like abortion. However, it exhibits limitations in accurately capturing diverse demographic perspectives, especially regarding traditionalism and free market views. Strategic recommendations include enhancing training methodologies to mitigate cultural and demographic biases.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

DeepSeek’s performance varies across different social issues, reflecting systemic biases in data sources and training methodologies.

Cross-Impact Simulation

DeepSeek’s simulation capabilities could influence public opinion modeling, impacting policy decisions in countries like the United States and China.

Scenario Generation

Potential futures include improved public opinion simulations with inclusive training or continued bias if current methodologies persist.

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Identified biases in DeepSeek’s outputs suggest a need for diversified data inputs to enhance model accuracy.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

DeepSeek’s tendency to overgeneralize highlights the risk of reinforcing singular narratives within demographic groups.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The use of biased LLMs like DeepSeek in public opinion simulation poses risks of skewed policy-making and societal division. The model’s limitations in representing diverse perspectives could exacerbate existing cultural and demographic divides.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance DeepSeek’s training datasets to include a broader range of cultural and demographic inputs.
• Develop inclusive training methodologies to reduce bias and improve simulation accuracy.
• Scenario-based projections: Best case – DeepSeek evolves into a balanced tool for public opinion simulation; Worst case – Continued bias leads to increased societal polarization; Most likely – Incremental improvements with ongoing challenges.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report does not specify individuals by name. The focus remains on the DeepSeek model and its comparative analysis with other LLMs.

6. Thematic Tags

artificial intelligence, public opinion, bias mitigation, large language models, cultural diversity