Published on: 2025-07-26

Intelligence Report: Palestine is shrinking every day – Electronicintifada.net

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the normalization of relations between Israel and various Arab states, as facilitated by the Abraham Accords, is contributing to the entrenchment of Israeli occupation and the marginalization of Palestinian claims. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Engage in diplomatic efforts to ensure that normalization agreements include provisions that address Palestinian rights and statehood aspirations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Normalization as Entrenchment**: The normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states is leading to the entrenchment of Israeli occupation and the marginalization of Palestinian claims, as these agreements do not adequately address Palestinian rights or statehood.

2. **Normalization as a Path to Peace**: The normalization agreements, such as the Abraham Accords, are a strategic pathway to peace that could eventually lead to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by fostering regional cooperation and economic integration.

Using ACH 2.0, the first hypothesis is better supported due to the lack of evidence that normalization efforts have led to tangible improvements in Palestinian conditions or progress towards statehood. The second hypothesis lacks support as current agreements have not included significant provisions for Palestinian rights.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that normalization agreements inherently marginalize Palestinian interests unless explicitly addressed. Another assumption is that regional cooperation will not automatically translate into benefits for Palestinians without deliberate policy inclusion.
– **Red Flags**: The absence of explicit Palestinian representation in normalization talks is a significant red flag. Additionally, the ongoing expansion of Israeli settlements contradicts the notion of normalization leading to peace.
– **Blind Spots**: Potential shifts in regional dynamics, such as changes in Saudi Arabia’s stance, could alter the current trajectory and are not fully accounted for.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical Risks**: The marginalization of Palestinian issues could lead to increased tensions and instability in the region, potentially escalating into broader conflicts.
– **Economic Risks**: Economic integration without addressing Palestinian grievances may lead to unequal development and further entrench disparities.
– **Psychological Risks**: The perception of betrayal among Palestinians could fuel radicalization and undermine peace efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Mitigation**: Advocate for the inclusion of Palestinian rights in future normalization agreements to ensure balanced regional development.
• **Opportunities**: Leverage international forums to highlight the importance of addressing Palestinian statehood in regional peace processes.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: Normalization agreements evolve to include Palestinian rights, leading to a comprehensive peace settlement.
  – **Worst Case**: Continued marginalization leads to increased violence and regional instability.
  – **Most Likely**: Incremental progress with sporadic tensions as Palestinian issues remain unresolved.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Donald Trump
– Zvi Sukkot

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical dynamics, regional stability, Middle East peace process