Published on: 2025-07-29

Intelligence Report: Map Shows Countries That Are Part of US Visa Waiver Program – Newsweek

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Argentina’s potential re-entry into the US Visa Waiver Program (VWP) is under consideration, driven by increased tourism and low visa overstay rates. The most supported hypothesis suggests Argentina will likely rejoin the VWP, contingent upon meeting security requirements. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor Argentina’s compliance with VWP criteria and prepare for potential policy adjustments.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Argentina will successfully rejoin the US Visa Waiver Program due to its low visa overstay rates and increased tourism, aligning with US interests in promoting lawful travel and economic ties.

Hypothesis 2: Argentina will face delays or fail to rejoin the VWP due to potential non-compliance with stringent US security and law enforcement data-sharing requirements.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Argentina’s low visa overstay rate is a significant factor for VWP eligibility.
– The US prioritizes economic and diplomatic ties with Argentina.

Red Flags:
– Potential gaps in Argentina’s compliance with US security requirements.
– Political changes in Argentina that could affect its commitment to US criteria.
– Lack of detailed information on Argentina’s current security measures.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

Reintegration of Argentina into the VWP could enhance US-Argentina relations and economic exchanges. However, failure to meet security standards could strain diplomatic ties and impact regional stability. The introduction of the visa integrity fee may also affect travel dynamics and perceptions of US immigration policy.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic dialogue to ensure Argentina’s compliance with VWP security requirements.
• Monitor political developments in Argentina that could influence its VWP eligibility.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Argentina meets all criteria and strengthens bilateral relations.
  • Worst Case: Argentina fails to comply, leading to diplomatic tensions.
  • Most Likely: Gradual progress with potential delays in meeting requirements.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Kristi Noem
– Javier Milei
– Maria Salazar
– Dan Gooding

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus