Published on: 2025-02-15

Intelligence Report: Sudan army retakes more of capital Khartoum from RSF – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Sudanese army has made significant territorial gains in Khartoum, reclaiming key areas from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Despite these advances, the RSF maintains control over strategic locations, including the central market and the presidential palace. The ongoing conflict, nearing its one-year mark, has resulted in widespread displacement and humanitarian crises. Immediate international intervention is crucial to prevent further escalation and humanitarian catastrophe.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: The Sudanese army’s recent territorial gains demonstrate improved military coordination and strategic planning.

Weaknesses: Continued RSF control over key areas indicates persistent challenges in achieving full territorial control.

Opportunities: Potential for international diplomatic intervention to facilitate peace talks.

Threats: Prolonged conflict risks further destabilization and humanitarian crises in the region.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The conflict in Sudan has significant implications for neighboring countries, potentially increasing refugee flows and regional instability. The involvement of external actors in peace negotiations could influence the balance of power and conflict dynamics.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Successful peace talks lead to a ceasefire and eventual political resolution.

Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict results in further humanitarian crises and regional destabilization.

Most likely scenario: Continued sporadic clashes with intermittent peace negotiations, leading to a prolonged stalemate.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. The humanitarian crisis, characterized by widespread displacement and acute hunger, demands urgent international attention. Economic interests are threatened by the disruption of trade routes and potential sanctions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Facilitate international diplomatic efforts to mediate peace talks between conflicting parties.
• Enhance humanitarian aid delivery to affected regions to alleviate the crisis.
• Implement measures to prevent the flow of arms and ammunition into the conflict zone.

Outlook:

Best-case: A negotiated settlement leads to a sustainable peace agreement.

Worst-case: Intensified conflict results in further humanitarian and regional crises.

Most likely: Prolonged conflict with intermittent negotiations and continued humanitarian challenges.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Antonio Guterres and organizations like the United Nations, highlighting their roles in addressing the crisis and advocating for peace efforts.