Published on: 2025-08-08

Intelligence Report: Escalating Terrorism in West Africa Sahel Hits Women Hardest Speakers Tell Security Council – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment is that the deteriorating security situation in the West Africa Sahel, exacerbated by terrorism, disproportionately impacts women and girls, threatening regional stability. The most supported hypothesis is that the lack of targeted gender-focused interventions in counter-terrorism efforts is exacerbating the crisis. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Increase investment in gender-focused initiatives within counter-terrorism and peacebuilding frameworks.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The escalation of terrorism in the Sahel is primarily driven by socio-economic factors such as poverty, environmental collapse, and dwindling development financing, with women and girls being disproportionately affected due to systemic gender inequalities.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The disproportionate impact on women and girls is primarily due to the tactical choices of terrorist groups who deliberately target and exploit them to undermine social structures and instill fear within communities.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported due to the deliberate targeting and exploitation tactics highlighted in the intelligence, such as abductions and the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the current data on abductions and violence against women is comprehensive and accurately reflects the situation on the ground.
– **Red Flags**: Potential underreporting of incidents due to limited humanitarian access and cultural stigmas surrounding gender-based violence.
– **Blind Spots**: The potential role of external actors or state-sponsored elements in exacerbating the situation is not addressed.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continued targeting of women and girls could lead to long-term destabilization of the region by disrupting social cohesion and hindering post-conflict recovery. Economic impacts include reduced workforce participation and increased dependency ratios. Geopolitically, the situation may lead to increased migration pressures on neighboring regions and potential international intervention. The psychological impact on affected populations could perpetuate cycles of violence and radicalization.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Mitigation**: Enhance gender-focused interventions in counter-terrorism strategies, including the deployment of women protection advisers and increased funding for gender equality initiatives.
• **Exploitation**: Leverage local women’s networks for peacebuilding and conflict mediation efforts.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: Successful integration of gender-focused strategies leads to improved security and stability in the region.
  – **Worst Case**: Continued neglect of gender issues results in further destabilization and humanitarian crises.
  – **Most Likely**: Incremental improvements in security with ongoing challenges due to entrenched socio-economic and cultural factors.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Sima Sami Bahous
– Levinia Addae Mensah

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus, gender-based violence