Published on: 2025-08-10

Intelligence Report: Will Lebanon succeed in disarming Hezbollah – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The likelihood of Lebanon successfully disarming Hezbollah is low. The most supported hypothesis is that Hezbollah will resist disarmament efforts, potentially leading to increased internal conflict. The recommended action is for Lebanon to engage in diplomatic negotiations with Hezbollah and its backers to prevent escalation. Confidence level: Moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hezbollah Will Resist Disarmament:** Hezbollah will actively resist disarmament efforts, leveraging its political influence and military capabilities to maintain its arsenal. This hypothesis is supported by Hezbollah’s outright rejection of the government’s decision and its historical resilience against similar efforts.

2. **Lebanon Will Successfully Disarm Hezbollah:** The Lebanese government, with international support, will implement a successful disarmament plan. This scenario assumes effective pressure from the international community and internal political consensus, which appears less supported given current tensions and Hezbollah’s strong backing from Iran.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions:** The first hypothesis assumes Hezbollah’s military and political strength remains intact. The second assumes international pressure will be effective and that Hezbollah’s influence within Lebanon can be diminished.
– **Red Flags:** Hezbollah’s public rejection and threats of force indicate a high risk of internal conflict. Iran’s support for Hezbollah suggests potential external interference.
– **Blind Spots:** The impact of regional dynamics, such as the Syrian conflict and Israel’s actions, on Hezbollah’s strategy is not fully explored.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Internal Conflict:** Resistance from Hezbollah could lead to civil unrest or armed conflict within Lebanon, destabilizing the region further.
– **Geopolitical Tensions:** Increased tensions between Lebanon and Iran, as well as potential Israeli involvement, could escalate into broader regional conflict.
– **Economic Impact:** Prolonged instability may deter foreign investment and exacerbate Lebanon’s economic crisis.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic dialogue with Hezbollah and its regional backers to find a peaceful resolution.
• Strengthen internal political cohesion to present a united front in negotiations.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful negotiations lead to a phased disarmament plan.
  • Worst Case: Armed conflict erupts, leading to significant casualties and regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Stalemate with periodic skirmishes and continued political tension.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Nawaf Salam
– Hassan Nasrallah
– Abbas Araghchi
– Youssef Raggi
– Elias Hankash
– Joseph Aoun

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional conflict, counter-terrorism, geopolitical dynamics