Published on: 2025-08-13

Intelligence Report: The world has the tools to end Haiti’s crisis – it’s time to use them – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the international community’s current efforts are insufficient due to inadequate resource allocation and political will, leading to a protracted crisis in Haiti. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action includes increasing international support and resources, enhancing coordination, and addressing underlying political issues.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The international community possesses the necessary tools and resources to resolve Haiti’s crisis but lacks the political will and coordination to implement effective solutions.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The international community is actively engaged and committed to resolving Haiti’s crisis, but systemic corruption and local resistance impede progress.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the evidence. The source indicates a lack of sufficient personnel and equipment for the multinational security support mission and slow implementation of sanctions, suggesting a gap in political will and coordination.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that increased international involvement will lead to positive outcomes in Haiti. There is an assumption that the international community can effectively coordinate efforts.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of detailed information on local resistance and systemic corruption. Potential bias in assuming international solutions without considering local dynamics.
– **Blind Spots**: Overlooking the role of local governance and community engagement in resolving the crisis.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Patterns**: Continued violence and instability in Haiti could lead to increased displacement and regional instability.
– **Cascading Threats**: Prolonged crisis may exacerbate food insecurity and trigger further humanitarian emergencies.
– **Potential Escalation**: Failure to address the crisis could result in increased migration pressures on neighboring countries and potential international intervention.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance international coordination and resource allocation to effectively support Haiti’s crisis response efforts.
• Engage with local leaders and communities to address systemic corruption and resistance.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Coordinated international and local efforts lead to stabilization and recovery in Haiti.
  • **Worst Case**: Continued inaction results in further deterioration, leading to regional instability.
  • **Most Likely**: Incremental improvements with ongoing challenges due to political and logistical hurdles.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Ulrika Richardson: Resident Humanitarian Coordinator for Haiti.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, humanitarian crisis, international coordination