Published on: 2025-08-13

Intelligence Report: Zelenskyy European leaders to hold Trump call ahead of Putin summit – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the European leaders, along with Zelenskyy, are attempting to influence the US-Russia summit to ensure Ukrainian interests are considered, with a moderate confidence level. It is recommended that diplomatic channels be reinforced to support Ukraine’s position and prevent any unilateral agreements that could legitimize territorial losses.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: European leaders and Zelenskyy are coordinating with Trump to ensure that Ukraine’s interests are represented at the upcoming US-Russia summit, aiming to prevent any agreements that could legitimize Russian territorial gains.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The coordination is primarily a symbolic gesture to reassure European allies and Ukraine, with little expectation of influencing the outcome of the Trump-Putin summit, which may already be predisposed towards a US-Russia agreement.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to the proactive steps taken by European leaders and Zelenskyy, such as arranging meetings and emphasizing Ukraine’s participation.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that Trump has significant influence over the summit’s outcomes and that European leaders can effectively sway US decisions.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of commitment from Trump to include Zelenskyy in talks with Putin suggests potential exclusion of Ukraine’s interests. The absence of detailed plans for how European leaders intend to influence the summit is concerning.
– **Blind Spots**: The potential for pre-existing agreements between the US and Russia that could bypass European and Ukrainian input is not addressed.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical Risks**: A US-Russia agreement that excludes Ukraine could destabilize European alliances and embolden Russian territorial ambitions.
– **Economic Risks**: Sanctions and economic measures could be undermined if a deal legitimizes Russian control over occupied territories.
– **Cyber and Psychological Risks**: Increased cyber threats and propaganda efforts could target European and Ukrainian entities to sow discord and confusion.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Strengthen diplomatic efforts to ensure Ukraine’s participation in any peace negotiations.
• Prepare contingency plans for potential exclusion from talks, including increased support for Ukrainian defense capabilities.
• Best Case: Ukraine’s interests are safeguarded in a multilateral agreement.
• Worst Case: A US-Russia deal legitimizes territorial losses for Ukraine.
• Most Likely: Limited influence on the summit outcomes, with ongoing diplomatic efforts to mitigate adverse impacts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Volodymyr Zelenskyy
– Friedrich Merz
– Donald Trump
– Vladimir Putin
– JD Vance
– Alexei Fadeev

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical strategy, European security, US-Russia relations, Ukraine conflict