Published on: 2025-08-16

Intelligence Report: Smotrich’s plan to ‘bury’ Palestinian state reflects Netanyahu’s ‘Greater Israel’ scheme Hamas – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The analysis suggests a medium confidence level that the Israeli government’s actions, as articulated by Bezalel Smotrich, align with a broader strategy to expand territorial control, potentially undermining the establishment of a Palestinian state. The most supported hypothesis indicates a deliberate policy to extend Israeli influence in the West Bank, consistent with historical expansionist objectives. Recommended action includes diplomatic engagement with regional stakeholders to mitigate tensions and reassess international policy responses.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Smotrich’s plan is part of a coordinated Israeli government strategy to expand territorial control in the West Bank, reflecting a long-term objective to establish a “Greater Israel.”

Hypothesis 2: Smotrich’s statements are primarily political rhetoric aimed at appeasing domestic hardline constituencies, with limited practical implementation in terms of actual territorial expansion.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Hypothesis 1 assumes a unified Israeli government stance on territorial expansion.
– Hypothesis 2 assumes that internal political dynamics primarily drive public statements.

Red Flags:
– Lack of direct evidence linking Smotrich’s statements to concrete policy actions.
– Potential bias in source reporting, particularly from entities with vested interests.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continuation of expansionist policies could exacerbate regional tensions, leading to increased resistance from Palestinian groups and potential diplomatic fallout with neighboring countries. There is a risk of escalating violence, impacting regional stability and international relations. The economic implications include potential sanctions or boycotts, while cyber and psychological operations could intensify as part of broader conflict dynamics.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in multilateral diplomatic efforts to address and de-escalate tensions, involving key regional and international actors.
• Monitor developments closely to identify shifts in policy or rhetoric that could indicate changes in strategic direction.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Diplomatic interventions lead to renewed peace negotiations and a reduction in hostilities.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of conflict results in widespread violence and regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued low-level conflict with intermittent diplomatic efforts failing to achieve significant breakthroughs.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Bezalel Smotrich, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mahmoud Mardawi

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical strategy, regional conflict, territorial expansion