Published on: 2025-08-17

Intelligence Report: The upcoming elections will not help stabilise Syria – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The upcoming elections in Syria are unlikely to stabilize the country due to deep-seated sectarian divisions and unresolved grievances. The hypothesis that the elections will exacerbate existing tensions is better supported. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: International stakeholders should prioritize comprehensive justice and accountability processes over procedural legitimacy to foster genuine reconciliation.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The elections will provide procedural legitimacy to Ahmad al-Sharaa’s government, facilitating international recognition and economic development, which will lead to stabilization.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The elections will deepen existing sectarian divides and reinforce power structures that benefit a select few, thereby destabilizing the country further.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported. The ongoing violence, sectarian tensions, and manipulation by power holders suggest that procedural legitimacy alone cannot address underlying issues.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Hypothesis A assumes that economic development and international recognition will naturally lead to stability. Hypothesis B assumes that sectarian divisions are too deep to be bridged by elections alone.
– **Red Flags**: The absence of a comprehensive justice process and the potential for economic investments to exacerbate existing grievances.
– **Blind Spots**: The potential role of external actors like Turkiye and Gulf states in shaping outcomes is not fully explored.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Patterns**: Recurring violence and sectarian manipulation by power holders.
– **Cascading Threats**: Increased sectarian violence could lead to regional instability, affecting neighboring countries.
– **Potential Escalation**: Economic investments without addressing root causes may lead to future conflicts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage international actors to support justice and accountability initiatives in Syria.
• Monitor sectarian tensions and provide mediation support to prevent escalation.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Comprehensive reforms lead to genuine reconciliation and stability.
  • Worst: Elections deepen divides, leading to widespread violence.
  • Most Likely: Limited stabilization with persistent underlying tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Ahmad al-Sharaa
– Bashar al-Assad
– Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, sectarian conflict, regional stability, international diplomacy