Published on: 2025-02-16

Intelligence Report: Zelensky Says He Won’t Accept Any Russia Deal Trump Makes Without Ukraine – Forbes

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Ukraine will not accept any peace deal between the United States and Russia unless Ukraine is an equal participant in the negotiations. This stance comes in response to Donald Trump’s announcement of potential negotiations with Vladimir Putin. Zelensky emphasizes the importance of Ukraine’s involvement to ensure any agreement is acceptable and sustainable for Ukraine’s future security.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Ukraine’s insistence on being part of negotiations ensures its interests are directly represented.
Weaknesses: Exclusion from negotiations could lead to unfavorable terms for Ukraine.
Opportunities: Direct involvement could lead to a more sustainable peace agreement.
Threats: Potential exclusion from talks could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The potential negotiations between the United States and Russia could significantly impact regional stability. If Ukraine is excluded, neighboring countries may perceive a shift in power dynamics, potentially leading to increased tensions or alliances.

Scenario Generation

– Best-Case Scenario: Ukraine participates in negotiations, leading to a comprehensive peace agreement that ensures regional stability and security.
– Worst-Case Scenario: Ukraine is excluded, resulting in a deal that compromises its territorial integrity and security.
– Most Likely Scenario: Protracted negotiations with Ukraine’s involvement, leading to a gradual de-escalation of conflict.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The exclusion of Ukraine from peace negotiations poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. It may embolden Russia to pursue further territorial ambitions, potentially destabilizing Eastern Europe. Economically, unresolved conflict could deter investment and economic recovery in Ukraine and neighboring regions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Ensure Ukraine’s participation in any peace negotiations to safeguard its sovereignty and security.
• Strengthen international alliances to support Ukraine’s position in negotiations.
• Implement technological and intelligence-sharing measures to monitor regional developments.

Outlook:

– Best-Case: A negotiated settlement with Ukraine’s involvement leads to long-term peace and stability.
– Worst-Case: Exclusion from talks results in a compromised agreement, escalating regional tensions.
– Most Likely: Ongoing negotiations with gradual progress towards a balanced agreement.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Volodymyr Zelensky
– Donald Trump
– Vladimir Putin
– Pete Hegseth