Published on: 2025-02-16

Intelligence Report: ISIL unable to mount large-scale attacks in India UN report – Thehillstimes.in

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The United Nations report indicates that ISIL is currently unable to execute large-scale attacks in India. Despite this, the group continues to incite lone-actor attacks through its handlers and propaganda efforts. ISIL remains resilient and adaptable under external counter-terrorism pressure, posing a steady threat to international peace and security. The group’s activities in Afghanistan continue to challenge regional stability, with implications for Central and South Asia.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH

Competing hypotheses suggest that ISIL’s inability to conduct large-scale attacks in India is due to effective counter-terrorism measures and the group’s focus on other regions, such as Afghanistan.

Indicators Development

Key indicators include increased lone-actor attacks, heightened propaganda efforts, and recruitment activities in Central and South Asia.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include ISIL regaining strength and capability to conduct large-scale attacks, continued focus on lone-actor and regional destabilization efforts, or further weakening due to international counter-terrorism collaboration.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The persistent threat posed by ISIL has significant implications for national security and regional stability. The group’s activities in Afghanistan could destabilize neighboring Central Asian states and impact economic interests. The resilience of ISIL’s organizational structure and its ability to adapt pose ongoing risks to international peace.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance intelligence-sharing and counter-terrorism collaboration among regional and international partners.
• Strengthen border security and monitoring to prevent the movement of fighters and resources.
• Invest in community engagement and counter-radicalization programs to reduce local support for ISIL.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: ISIL’s influence and operational capabilities continue to diminish due to sustained international pressure.
Worst-case scenario: ISIL successfully adapts its strategies, increasing the frequency and impact of lone-actor attacks.
Most likely scenario: ISIL remains a persistent threat, with fluctuating levels of activity and influence in Central and South Asia.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report highlights the involvement of Mawlawi Rajab in high-impact operations within Afghanistan. The presence of ISIL and its affiliate ISIL Khorasan Province continues to pose a threat to regional stability. The report also notes the activities of Al Jauhar Media in spreading propaganda.