Published on: 2025-08-23

Intelligence Report: Ukraine war shakes up geopolitics in other ex-Soviet states – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Ukraine war is catalyzing a shift in geopolitical dynamics among ex-Soviet states, particularly in the South Caucasus region. The most supported hypothesis is that Azerbaijan is leveraging the situation to strengthen its regional influence and alliances, notably with Turkey, while maintaining a strategic balance between Russia and Western powers. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor Azerbaijan’s diplomatic and military engagements closely, especially its interactions with Turkey and Russia, to anticipate shifts in regional power dynamics.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Azerbaijan is using the Ukraine war as an opportunity to distance itself from Russian influence and align more closely with Turkey and the West. This is evidenced by Azerbaijan’s military cooperation with Turkey and its strategic use of petrodollars to maintain independence.

2. **Hypothesis B**: Azerbaijan is maintaining a balanced approach, leveraging the Ukraine war to enhance its regional influence while avoiding full alignment with either Russia or the West. This is supported by Azerbaijan’s continued diplomatic engagements with both sides and its equidistant stance.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Hypothesis A assumes Azerbaijan is willing to risk Russian relations for Western alignment. Hypothesis B assumes Azerbaijan can successfully maintain a balanced approach without alienating key partners.
– **Red Flags**: The potential for cognitive bias exists in overestimating Azerbaijan’s willingness to distance from Russia. Inconsistent data includes the lack of explicit statements from Azerbaijan regarding its long-term strategic intentions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The evolving geopolitical landscape could lead to increased tensions in the South Caucasus, with potential for military escalation if Azerbaijan’s balancing act fails. Economic risks include disruptions in regional trade and energy supply chains. Cybersecurity threats may arise from increased regional instability, potentially targeting critical infrastructure.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence gathering on Azerbaijan’s military and diplomatic activities.
• Encourage diplomatic dialogues to reduce tensions and promote regional stability.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Azerbaijan successfully balances relations, leading to regional stability.
  • Worst Case: Missteps lead to military conflict, drawing in regional powers.
  • Most Likely: Azerbaijan continues to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, maintaining its strategic autonomy.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Ilham Aliyev
– Nikol Pashinyan
– Donald Trump
– Maria Zakharova
– Aleksandr Dugin
– Fariz Ismailzade
– Nariman Aliyev
– Rusif Huseynov

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus