Published on: 2025-08-23

Intelligence Report: Gregg Jarrett Predicts Whether DOJ Can Stick By The Book When It Comes To Bolton – The Daily Caller

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the Department of Justice (DOJ) is conducting a legitimate investigation into John Bolton’s handling of classified information, with a moderate confidence level. The recommended action is to monitor developments closely for any signs of political manipulation or deviation from standard legal procedures.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The DOJ is pursuing a legitimate investigation into John Bolton’s alleged mishandling of classified information, following standard legal procedures.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The investigation into Bolton is politically motivated, aimed at discrediting him due to his criticisms of former President Trump and his administration.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions for Hypothesis A**: The DOJ operates independently of political influence, and the investigation is based on credible evidence of wrongdoing.
– **Assumptions for Hypothesis B**: The DOJ is susceptible to political pressure, and the investigation is a response to Bolton’s past criticisms of Trump.
– **Red Flags**: The timing of the investigation could suggest political motivations. The involvement of high-profile figures like Kash Patel and Dan Bongino might indicate a partisan angle.
– **Blind Spots**: Lack of detailed information on the evidence prompting the investigation. Potential biases in media reporting may skew public perception.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Political Risks**: If the investigation is perceived as politically motivated, it could undermine public trust in the DOJ and exacerbate partisan tensions.
– **Legal Risks**: A failure to adhere to legal standards could result in legal challenges and potential dismissal of charges.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: International perception of U.S. legal integrity could be affected, influencing diplomatic relations.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Monitor**: Continuously assess the DOJ’s actions for adherence to legal norms and potential political interference.
• **Engage**: Encourage transparency from the DOJ to mitigate public skepticism.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: The investigation is conducted transparently, reinforcing the DOJ’s credibility.
  – **Worst Case**: The investigation is revealed to be politically motivated, leading to significant reputational damage.
  – **Most Likely**: The investigation proceeds with some public skepticism but without clear evidence of political manipulation.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– John Bolton
– Gregg Jarrett
– Kash Patel
– Dan Bongino
– Andrew McCabe
– Pam Bondi

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus