Published on: 2025-02-17

Intelligence Report: Waiting and Praying for News of Victory After Two Years of Sudan’s Civil War – Sky.com

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing civil war in Sudan has resulted in significant humanitarian and security challenges. The Sudanese army is actively attempting to reclaim key areas from the rapid support force (RSF) militia, with recent efforts focused on Khartoum and its surrounding regions. The conflict has led to severe civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Immediate strategic focus is required to stabilize the region, support humanitarian efforts, and facilitate peace negotiations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: The Sudanese army’s strategic positioning and grassroots support in key regions.

Weaknesses: Prolonged conflict leading to resource depletion and civilian unrest.

Opportunities: Potential for international mediation and humanitarian aid to stabilize the region.

Threats: Continued RSF resistance and potential for regional spillover of conflict.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The conflict in Sudan may influence neighboring countries by increasing refugee flows and destabilizing border regions. Economic impacts are likely as trade routes are disrupted, affecting regional markets.

Scenario Generation

Best-Case Scenario: Successful peace negotiations lead to a ceasefire and gradual rebuilding of infrastructure.

Worst-Case Scenario: Escalation of conflict results in further civilian casualties and regional instability.

Most Likely Scenario: Continued skirmishes with intermittent peace talks, requiring sustained international intervention.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to national security, with potential for increased terrorist activities and recruitment. Regional stability is threatened by the displacement of populations and economic disruptions. The humanitarian crisis requires urgent attention to prevent further loss of life and infrastructure damage.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to mediate peace talks between conflicting parties.
• Increase humanitarian aid and support to affected regions to alleviate civilian suffering.
• Implement monitoring mechanisms to ensure compliance with any ceasefire agreements.

Outlook:

Best-Case: A negotiated settlement leads to a stable transition to civilian rule.

Worst-Case: Prolonged conflict exacerbates regional instability and humanitarian crises.

Most Likely: Continued conflict with periodic negotiations, requiring sustained international engagement.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Mohame, Momen, Sabreen, and Tewa. Key entities include the Sudanese army, RSF militia, and various community volunteer groups.