Published on: 2025-08-31

Intelligence Report: US pressure may break Iranian influence in Iraq – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that US pressure will lead to a reduction in Iranian influence in Iraq, primarily through the restructuring of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: The US should continue diplomatic engagement with Iraq to support the integration of compliant PMF units into the regular army while monitoring potential Iranian countermeasures.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **US Pressure Successfully Reduces Iranian Influence**: The US pressure campaign, including economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts, will lead to the absorption of compliant PMF units into the Iraqi army, thereby diminishing Iran’s influence in Iraq.
2. **Iranian Influence Persists Despite US Pressure**: Despite US efforts, Iran will maintain its influence through loyal PMF factions and political maneuvering, potentially leveraging the PMF integration bill to institutionalize its presence in Iraq.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The US has sufficient leverage over Iraq to enforce significant changes; Iraqi political will aligns with US objectives.
– **Red Flags**: Potential underestimation of Iran’s capacity to adapt and counter US strategies; over-reliance on economic sanctions as a tool for political change.
– **Blind Spots**: The internal cohesion and resilience of PMF factions loyal to Iran; the potential for unintended consequences of US pressure, such as increased anti-American sentiment.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic**: Sanctions could destabilize Iraq’s economy, affecting regional stability.
– **Geopolitical**: Escalation of US-Iran tensions could lead to broader regional conflicts.
– **Psychological**: Increased anti-US sentiment among Iraqi populations could hinder diplomatic efforts.
– **Cascading Threats**: Failure to integrate PMF units could lead to a security vacuum, potentially exploited by extremist groups.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Continue diplomatic efforts to support Iraqi sovereignty and PMF integration.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing with Iraqi authorities to monitor PMF activities.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Successful integration of PMF units, reduced Iranian influence, and improved Iraqi stability.
  • **Worst Case**: Increased Iranian influence through institutionalized PMF, leading to regional instability.
  • **Most Likely**: Partial success in PMF integration, with ongoing Iranian influence through political channels.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Mohammed al-Sudani
– Marco Rubio
– Ahmed al-Rahawi
– Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical dynamics, regional influence, military integration