Published on: 2025-02-18

Intelligence Report: The New Globalism – The Atlantic

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The analysis of the current geopolitical landscape reveals a shift towards a new form of globalism characterized by strategic extraterritorial actions and selective international cooperation. Key findings indicate a focus on exploiting legal and territorial loopholes to advance national interests, with significant implications for international relations and domestic policies. Recommendations include enhancing diplomatic engagement and revising international agreements to address emerging challenges.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Strategic use of extraterritorial spaces enhances national influence.
Weaknesses: Potential for diplomatic fallout and international criticism.
Opportunities: Leveraging new alliances and economic partnerships.
Threats: Increased geopolitical tensions and regional instability.

Cross-Impact Matrix

Events in regions such as Central America and the Caribbean may influence neighboring areas through migration patterns and economic dependencies. For example, agreements with countries like El Salvador could impact regional migration flows and security dynamics.

Scenario Generation

Scenario 1: Increased international cooperation leads to stabilized regional relations.
Scenario 2: Escalation of geopolitical tensions results in economic sanctions and isolation.
Scenario 3: Balanced approach with selective engagement and strategic partnerships.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The strategic use of extraterritorial spaces poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. The potential for human rights violations and legal ambiguities could lead to international scrutiny and reputational damage. Economic interests may be threatened by disrupted trade relations and increased regulatory challenges.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to build consensus on international norms and regulations.
• Invest in technology and infrastructure to monitor and manage extraterritorial activities effectively.
• Strengthen legal frameworks to ensure accountability and transparency in international dealings.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic engagements lead to strengthened international alliances and economic growth.
Worst-case scenario: Geopolitical tensions escalate, resulting in economic downturns and regional conflicts.
Most likely scenario: A mixed outcome with partial successes in diplomatic and economic initiatives.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and Nayib Bukele. These figures play pivotal roles in shaping the current geopolitical landscape through their actions and policies. Additionally, organizations such as the ACLU and Amnesty International are highlighted for their involvement in addressing human rights concerns.