Published on: 2025-02-18

Intelligence Report: US and Russia discuss ending Ukraine war without Kyiv – NPR

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Recent discussions between the US and Russia in Riyadh aim to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict, notably excluding Ukraine and European allies from the talks. This development could lead to significant geopolitical shifts, with potential impacts on regional stability and international relations. Key outcomes include the possibility of a unilateral prisoner release by Russia and a new era of dialogue between Moscow and Washington. However, the exclusion of Ukraine raises concerns about the legitimacy and sustainability of any agreement reached.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: The initiation of dialogue between the US and Russia could pave the way for conflict resolution and improved bilateral relations.
Weaknesses: Excluding Ukraine and European allies may undermine the legitimacy of the negotiations and any resulting agreements.
Opportunities: Successful negotiations could lead to economic investment opportunities and enhanced geopolitical cooperation.
Threats: The exclusion of key stakeholders risks destabilizing the region and alienating allies.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The exclusion of Ukraine from talks may strain US-European relations and embolden Russia’s regional influence. Conversely, improved US-Russia relations could lead to broader geopolitical realignments, affecting NATO dynamics and European security policies.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Successful negotiations lead to a sustainable peace agreement, with Ukraine eventually included in the process.
Worst-case scenario: Exclusion of Ukraine leads to increased regional tensions and potential escalation of conflict.
Most likely scenario: Initial agreements are reached, but long-term resolution remains elusive without broader stakeholder involvement.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The exclusion of Ukraine from peace talks poses significant risks to regional stability and could undermine international norms regarding sovereignty and territorial integrity. The potential for unilateral actions by Russia, such as prisoner releases, may be viewed as strategic maneuvers rather than genuine diplomatic efforts. Additionally, the lack of European involvement could lead to fractures within NATO and weaken collective security frameworks.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage inclusive negotiations that involve all relevant stakeholders, including Ukraine and European allies, to ensure a comprehensive and sustainable peace agreement.
• Enhance diplomatic efforts to strengthen transatlantic relations and maintain a unified approach to regional security challenges.
• Consider regulatory and organizational changes to improve conflict resolution mechanisms and prevent future exclusions of key stakeholders.

Outlook:

Best-case: Inclusive negotiations lead to a durable peace agreement, fostering regional stability and economic growth.
Worst-case: Exclusion of key stakeholders results in increased tensions and potential conflict escalation.
Most likely: Initial agreements are reached, but long-term resolution requires broader international involvement and compromise.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Sergei Lavrov, Yuri Ushakov, Mike Waltz, Steve Witkoff, Marc Fogel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Dmitry Peskov, and Sergei Markov. These individuals play crucial roles in the ongoing negotiations and geopolitical dynamics.