Published on: 2025-02-18

Intelligence Report: Zelenskyy demands Ukraine involvement after US-Russia talks on war – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted on Ukraine’s involvement in negotiations following US-Russia talks aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine. The United States and Russia have agreed to form teams to negotiate a ceasefire, but Ukraine’s exclusion from these discussions has raised concerns. The talks are set to take place in Riyadh, coinciding with a meeting between Zelenskyy and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with ongoing military actions in Eastern Ukraine and strategic interests at stake for NATO and the European Union.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Ukraine’s strategic alliances with NATO and the EU bolster its defense capabilities.

Weaknesses: Exclusion from direct negotiations may undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and decision-making power.

Opportunities: Potential for diplomatic resolutions through multilateral talks involving key regional players.

Threats: Continued Russian military aggression and geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe.

Cross-Impact Matrix

US-Russia negotiations may influence NATO’s strategic posture in Eastern Europe, potentially affecting military deployments and defense strategies. European Union’s stance on sanctions could impact Russia’s economic stability and its foreign policy decisions.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Successful multilateral negotiations lead to a ceasefire and a roadmap for peace.

Worst-case scenario: Escalation of military conflict due to failed negotiations and increased territorial disputes.

Most likely scenario: Prolonged diplomatic engagements with intermittent military skirmishes in contested regions.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The exclusion of Ukraine from direct negotiations poses a risk to its national sovereignty and may embolden Russian territorial ambitions. Regional stability is threatened by ongoing military engagements, and economic interests are at risk due to potential disruptions in energy supplies and trade routes. The geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe remains fragile, with implications for NATO’s strategic objectives and EU’s economic policies.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage inclusive negotiations that involve Ukraine as a key stakeholder to ensure balanced outcomes.
• Enhance NATO’s defensive posture in Eastern Europe to deter further aggression.
• Strengthen economic sanctions on Russia to pressure compliance with international norms.

Outlook:

Best-case: A diplomatic breakthrough leads to a sustainable peace agreement and regional stability.
Worst-case: Intensified conflict results in widespread humanitarian crises and geopolitical fragmentation.
Most likely: Ongoing diplomatic efforts with periodic escalations in military activities, maintaining a status quo of tension.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Marco Rubio, Sergey Lavrov, Maria Zakharova, and Mike Waltz. Key entities include the United States, Russia, NATO, the European Union, and the State Department in Washington.