Published on: 2025-09-29

Intelligence Report: What is the Trump plan for Gaza and will it work – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Trump plan for Gaza, which involves removing Hamas and establishing a temporary international stabilization force, is unlikely to succeed due to its reliance on international cooperation and the potential for regional resistance. The hypothesis that the plan will face significant challenges is better supported. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Engage with regional stakeholders to address concerns and explore alternative peace-building measures.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The Trump plan will succeed in stabilizing Gaza by removing Hamas and installing a temporary international stabilization force, leading to long-term peace and redevelopment.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The Trump plan will face significant challenges and resistance, failing to achieve its objectives due to regional opposition, lack of cooperation, and potential escalation of tensions.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported due to historical resistance to foreign intervention in Gaza, the complexity of regional politics, and the lack of clear incentives for key stakeholders to cooperate with the plan.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The plan assumes international partners will cooperate and that Hamas can be effectively removed without significant backlash. It also assumes that a temporary stabilization force can maintain peace.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of clear support from regional powers, potential for increased violence if Hamas resists, and the historical ineffectiveness of similar plans.
– **Blind Spots**: The plan does not fully address the socio-political dynamics within Gaza or the potential for internal Palestinian opposition.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased tensions between Israel and neighboring Arab states if the plan is perceived as biased or aggressive.
– **Economic Risks**: Potential disruption of aid and economic development in Gaza if the plan fails.
– **Psychological Risks**: Heightened distrust among Palestinian populations towards international interventions.
– **Escalation Scenarios**: Possible escalation into broader regional conflict if the plan is met with violent resistance.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic efforts with regional stakeholders to build consensus and address concerns.
• Develop contingency plans for potential escalation scenarios, including humanitarian aid strategies.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful implementation with regional support, leading to peace and redevelopment.
  • Worst Case: Plan failure, resulting in increased violence and regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Partial implementation with ongoing challenges and limited success.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Donald Trump
– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Tony Blair
– Jared Kushner
– Hamas
– Palestinian Authority

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, geopolitical strategy, peace-building, international cooperation