Published on: 2025-10-01

Intelligence Report: What Hamas Wants Removed From Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan Revealed – International Business Times

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that Hamas seeks to amend the Gaza peace plan to avoid disarmament and expulsion, leveraging regional support to negotiate terms more favorable to their strategic objectives. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Engage in diplomatic efforts with regional allies to mediate a compromise that addresses security concerns while considering Hamas’s demands.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hamas Seeks Tactical Amendments:** Hamas aims to remove specific clauses from the peace plan, such as disarmament and expulsion, to maintain its operational capabilities and political influence within Gaza. This hypothesis is supported by reports of Hamas leaders seeking regional support to amend the plan.

2. **Hamas Intends to Reject the Plan Entirely:** Hamas’s engagement in negotiations is a strategic delay tactic, intending to ultimately reject the plan while consolidating support and preparing for potential escalations. This hypothesis considers the group’s historical resistance to similar proposals and the reported infuriation of Arab officials over the plan’s presentation.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions:** It is assumed that Hamas’s primary goal is to maintain its military capabilities and political control over Gaza. Another assumption is that regional actors like Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey have significant influence over Hamas’s decision-making.
– **Red Flags:** The potential for cognitive bias exists in underestimating Hamas’s willingness to negotiate genuinely. The lack of detailed information on the specific amendments Hamas seeks is a critical gap.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical Risks:** Failure to reach a compromise could escalate tensions in the region, potentially leading to renewed conflict.
– **Economic Implications:** Prolonged instability may disrupt economic activities and humanitarian aid efforts in Gaza.
– **Psychological Impact:** The perception of an imposed peace plan could further entrench anti-Israel sentiments and radicalize factions within Gaza.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with regional allies to facilitate dialogue between Hamas and the Trump administration, aiming to find a mutually acceptable compromise.
• Monitor communications and public statements from Hamas and regional actors to assess shifts in negotiation stances.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: A revised peace plan is accepted, leading to a reduction in hostilities and improved regional stability.
  • Worst Case: Negotiations collapse, resulting in increased violence and regional destabilization.
  • Most Likely: Prolonged negotiations with intermittent escalations as parties seek to maximize their strategic positions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
– Hassan Rashad
– Steve Witkoff

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus