Published on: 2025-10-05

Intelligence Report: How strong is Hamas two years after October 7 attacks – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Hamas has demonstrated resilience and adaptability two years after the October 7 attacks, despite significant military setbacks. The most supported hypothesis is that Hamas has maintained its operational capabilities through decentralized tactics and recruitment, albeit with reduced firepower. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Enhance intelligence-sharing and counter-insurgency operations to disrupt Hamas’s recruitment and tactical adaptations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hamas has significantly weakened**: The group’s military capabilities have been severely diminished due to Israeli military actions, loss of senior leadership, and destruction of heavy weaponry.

2. **Hamas remains operationally resilient**: Despite losses, Hamas has adapted by decentralizing its operations, recruiting new fighters, and employing guerrilla tactics, maintaining a significant threat level.

Using ACH 2.0, the second hypothesis is better supported by evidence of ongoing recruitment, tactical adaptations, and continued, albeit reduced, military actions against Israel.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The assumption that Hamas’s reduced rocket attacks equate to diminished capability may overlook strategic shifts towards guerrilla tactics.
– **Red Flags**: Inconsistent reports on the number of Hamas fighters killed and recruited suggest potential data manipulation or intelligence gaps.
– **Blind Spots**: Lack of detailed intelligence on Hamas’s internal command structure and strategic objectives.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Escalation Risks**: Continued guerrilla tactics could provoke disproportionate responses from Israel, escalating regional tensions.
– **Geopolitical Impact**: Increased Hamas activity in the West Bank could destabilize broader Israeli-Palestinian relations.
– **Psychological Dimension**: Persistent low-level attacks may erode Israeli public confidence and increase domestic pressure on the government.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence operations to monitor and disrupt Hamas’s recruitment and tactical networks.
• Strengthen regional alliances to apply diplomatic pressure on Hamas’s external supporters.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful disruption of Hamas’s recruitment and supply chains reduces their operational capacity.
  • Worst Case: Hamas’s guerrilla tactics lead to significant casualties, prompting broader conflict.
  • Most Likely: Continued low-intensity conflict with periodic escalations.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Marina Miron: Researcher providing insights into Hamas’s tactical shifts.
– Leila Seurat: Analyst commenting on Hamas’s recruitment strategies.
– Mohammed al-Astal: Analyst discussing Hamas’s operational adaptations.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus, guerrilla warfare