Published on: 2025-10-05

Intelligence Report: What has Israel achieved in 2 years of war in Gaza – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment indicates that Israel’s military operations in Gaza have achieved limited tactical successes but have not fully met their strategic objectives. The most supported hypothesis suggests that while Israel has weakened Hamas and disrupted its operations, the broader goal of long-term security and stability remains elusive. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Pursue diplomatic engagement to complement military efforts and address humanitarian concerns.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Israel has successfully degraded Hamas’s military capabilities, achieving significant strategic objectives, including the weakening of regional adversaries like Hezbollah and Iran’s influence.

Hypothesis 2: Despite tactical successes, Israel’s operations have not achieved the strategic goal of long-term security and stability, as Hamas remains operational and regional tensions persist.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 2 is better supported due to ongoing hostilities, continued Hamas activities, and regional instability.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Israel’s military actions are primarily aimed at degrading Hamas’s capabilities.
– Regional actors like Hezbollah and Iran are directly supporting Hamas.

Red Flags:
– Potential underestimation of Hamas’s resilience and adaptability.
– Inconsistent data on the humanitarian impact and civilian casualties.
– Lack of clarity on the effectiveness of international diplomatic efforts.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict risks further destabilizing the region, potentially drawing in additional state and non-state actors. Economic sanctions and military actions could exacerbate humanitarian crises, fueling anti-Israel sentiment and increasing recruitment for extremist groups. Cyber threats and asymmetric warfare tactics may also escalate.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in multilateral diplomatic efforts to address underlying political issues and promote a ceasefire.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing and cybersecurity measures to counter asymmetric threats.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Successful diplomatic intervention leads to a sustainable ceasefire and humanitarian relief.
  • Worst Case: Escalation into a broader regional conflict involving multiple state actors.
  • Most Likely: Continued low-intensity conflict with periodic escalations.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Ismail Haniyeh
– Yahya Sinwar
– Hassan Nasrallah
– Donald Trump

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus