Published on: 2025-10-15

Intelligence Report: Leader of Madagascar’s military coup tells AP he is taking the position of president – Boston Herald

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The situation in Madagascar presents a high-risk environment with potential for regional instability. The most supported hypothesis is that Colonel Michael Randrianirina’s coup is primarily motivated by internal dissatisfaction and youth-led protests, rather than external influences. Confidence level is moderate due to conflicting reports and potential misinformation. Recommended action is to monitor developments closely, engage with regional partners, and prepare for humanitarian assistance if needed.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The military coup led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina is a response to widespread domestic dissatisfaction and is primarily driven by internal factors, including youth-led protests and economic grievances.
Hypothesis 2: The coup is influenced by external actors seeking to destabilize Madagascar for strategic or economic gains, potentially exploiting internal unrest as a pretext.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– The military’s actions reflect genuine popular support and are not solely a power grab.
– The High Constitutional Court’s involvement is legitimate and not coerced.

Red Flags:
– Contradictory statements regarding the High Constitutional Court’s role.
– Reports of threats to court judges and claims of forced compliance.
– Lack of clarity on the whereabouts and intentions of former President Andry Rajoelina.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The coup could lead to prolonged instability, affecting Madagascar’s economy, particularly its vanilla production. Regional spillover effects may arise, impacting neighboring countries and potentially inviting foreign intervention. The situation could also exacerbate existing humanitarian issues, including poverty and infrastructure deficits.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with regional organizations like the African Union to support diplomatic resolution efforts.
• Prepare contingency plans for potential humanitarian aid deployment.
• Monitor for signs of external influence or intervention, particularly from regional powers.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Peaceful transition to a civilian government with international mediation.
  • Worst Case: Escalation into civil conflict with regional destabilization.
  • Most Likely: Prolonged military rule with intermittent protests and international pressure.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Colonel Michael Randrianirina
– Andry Rajoelina
– Safika (Protest leader)
– High Constitutional Court of Madagascar

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional instability, political unrest, humanitarian crisis