Published on: 2025-10-16

Intelligence Report: Can Hamas be disarmed in Gaza – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The disarmament of Hamas in Gaza is unlikely in the short to medium term due to entrenched political, social, and military structures. The hypothesis that Hamas will maintain its armed presence is better supported by current intelligence. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Engage in diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region while preparing for potential escalations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hamas will be disarmed in Gaza:** This hypothesis suggests that international and regional pressures, coupled with internal power struggles, will lead to the disarmament of Hamas. The support from external actors like the Abu Shabab clan and potential international agreements could facilitate this process.

2. **Hamas will maintain its armed presence in Gaza:** This hypothesis posits that despite external pressures, Hamas will continue to wield significant military and political power in Gaza. The group’s deep-rooted influence, symbolic importance of arms, and ability to adapt to political changes support this scenario.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions:** The first hypothesis assumes successful international mediation and cooperation from local factions. The second assumes Hamas’s resilience and ability to maintain internal cohesion.
– **Red Flags:** Contradictory statements from international leaders, such as those from President Trump, and the lack of concrete disarmament plans raise concerns about the feasibility of disarmament.
– **Blind Spots:** The potential role of external actors like Iran or other regional powers in supporting Hamas’s military capabilities is not fully explored.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical Risks:** Continued armed presence of Hamas could lead to further regional instability and conflict with Israel, affecting broader Middle Eastern geopolitics.
– **Economic Risks:** Prolonged conflict may exacerbate economic hardships in Gaza, leading to humanitarian crises.
– **Psychological Risks:** Persistent tension may fuel radicalization and undermine peace efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Mitigation:** Strengthen diplomatic channels with regional stakeholders to encourage dialogue and conflict resolution.
• **Exploitation:** Leverage international influence to facilitate humanitarian aid and economic development in Gaza.
• **Scenario Projections:**
  – Best Case: Successful disarmament and stabilization through international cooperation.
  – Worst Case: Escalation of conflict leading to broader regional war.
  – Most Likely: Continued stalemate with sporadic violence and political maneuvering.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Khaled Abu Toameh
– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Mahmoud Abbas
– Donald Trump
– Simon Wolfgang Fuchs
– Simon Engelke

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus, Middle East politics