Published on: 2025-10-21

Intelligence Report: Sudan Council approves conclusions on the ongoing conflict – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The European Union (EU) strongly condemns the ongoing conflict in Sudan, emphasizing the need for a ceasefire and inclusive peace process. The most supported hypothesis suggests that the EU’s stance aims to pressure conflicting parties towards negotiation, with a moderate confidence level. Recommended action includes diplomatic engagement and targeted sanctions to facilitate peace talks.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The EU’s condemnation and call for negotiations are primarily aimed at pressuring the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to engage in peace talks, leveraging international diplomatic channels to stabilize the region.

Hypothesis 2: The EU’s statements are largely symbolic, with limited practical impact on the ground, serving more to align with international norms and maintain its image as a peace-promoting entity.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– The EU’s influence is significant enough to impact SAF and RSF decision-making.
– The conflicting parties are receptive to international pressure.

Red Flags:
– Lack of concrete evidence showing EU’s past success in similar conflicts.
– Potential underestimation of local dynamics and resistance to external influence.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict in Sudan poses risks of regional instability, potentially leading to increased refugee flows and cross-border tensions. Economic impacts could arise from disrupted trade routes. Geopolitically, prolonged conflict may invite external actors with competing interests, complicating resolution efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in multilateral diplomacy involving key regional players to support peace initiatives.
• Implement targeted sanctions against individuals obstructing peace efforts.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful negotiations lead to a ceasefire and gradual stabilization.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of conflict with increased regional involvement.
  • Most Likely: Protracted negotiations with intermittent violence.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
– Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
– European Union (EU)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, diplomatic engagement, conflict resolution