Published on: 2025-10-23

Intelligence Report: Hamas plans ‘largest’ operation against Israeli-backed gangs in Gaza – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Hamas is preparing a significant operation to dismantle armed groups in Gaza that are allegedly collaborating with Israeli forces. The most supported hypothesis is that Hamas aims to consolidate control and eliminate threats to its authority. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor developments for potential escalation and shifts in regional alliances.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hamas is conducting the operation to consolidate power and eliminate internal threats**: This hypothesis suggests that Hamas’s primary goal is to strengthen its control over Gaza by removing armed factions that undermine its authority and collaborate with Israeli forces. This is supported by the reported targeting of specific groups and the seizure of weapons.

2. **Hamas is using the operation to distract from internal challenges and external pressures**: Alternatively, the operation could be a strategic distraction from internal governance issues or external pressures, such as international criticism or economic challenges. This hypothesis is less supported but plausible given the timing and public nature of the operation.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the armed groups are indeed collaborating with Israeli forces, and that the operation will effectively dismantle these groups.
– **Red Flags**: The potential exaggeration of the threat posed by these groups to justify the operation. Lack of independent verification of the collaboration claims.
– **Blind Spots**: Possible underestimation of the resilience or adaptability of the targeted groups.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Internal Stability**: Successful operations could enhance Hamas’s control but may also provoke backlash from local communities or rival factions.
– **Regional Dynamics**: Increased tensions with Israel could lead to broader conflict, affecting regional stability.
– **Humanitarian Impact**: Operations could exacerbate humanitarian conditions in Gaza, drawing international criticism and complicating aid efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Monitor**: Closely observe the operation’s progress and any Israeli response to anticipate potential escalation.
• **Engage**: Encourage dialogue between Hamas and local leaders to mitigate backlash and promote stability.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: Hamas successfully dismantles the groups with minimal violence, leading to increased stability.
  – **Worst Case**: The operation escalates into broader conflict with Israel, destabilizing the region.
  – **Most Likely**: Partial success in dismantling groups, with ongoing low-level conflict and tension.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Yasser Abu Shabab
– Ashraf Al Mansi
– Dr. Marwan Al Hums

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus