Published on: 2025-10-23

Intelligence Report: An ex-first lady a tycoon and a ‘safe pair of hands’ vie for power in a cocoa superpower – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The upcoming presidential election in Ivory Coast presents a high-stakes scenario with potential for political instability. The most supported hypothesis suggests that the election could lead to significant unrest due to the exclusion of key opposition figures and the contentious candidacy of the incumbent president, Alassane Ouattara. Confidence in this assessment is moderate, given the historical context of electoral violence in the country. It is recommended to closely monitor the situation for signs of escalating tensions and to prepare for potential humanitarian and economic impacts.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The election will proceed with minimal unrest, and Alassane Ouattara will secure another term, leveraging his economic achievements and political influence.

Hypothesis 2: The election will trigger significant unrest due to the exclusion of prominent opposition figures and the controversial candidacy of Ouattara, leading to potential violence and instability.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis 2 is better supported by historical patterns of post-election violence and the current political climate of exclusion and dissatisfaction among opposition supporters.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Key assumptions include the belief that economic growth under Ouattara will translate into electoral support and that opposition disqualification will not significantly mobilize dissent. Red flags include the historical precedent of electoral violence and the recent crackdown on protests, which may exacerbate tensions. The exclusion of Tidjane Thiam and Laurent Gbagbo from the race is a critical factor that could lead to unrest.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

Potential implications include disruption of cocoa production, impacting global supply chains, and a humanitarian crisis if violence ensues. The political instability could invite external intervention or influence from regional powers. The psychological impact on the populace, given past trauma, could lead to long-term societal divisions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor political developments and public sentiment closely to anticipate potential flashpoints.
• Engage with regional and international partners to prepare contingency plans for humanitarian aid and conflict resolution.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Peaceful election with a clear winner, leading to stability and continued economic growth.
  • Worst Case: Widespread violence and political instability, disrupting economic activities and causing regional spillover.
  • Most Likely: Limited unrest localized to urban centers, with a contested election outcome.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Alassane Ouattara, Simone Gbagbo, Jean Louis Billon, Henriette Lagou, Ahoua Don Mello, Tidjane Thiam, Laurent Gbagbo, Adama Coulibaly

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, political instability, regional focus, electoral violence