Published on: 2025-10-24

Intelligence Report: Victims and perpetrators of terrorism cannot be equated EAM Jaishankar – BusinessLine

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that India’s External Affairs Minister, Jaishankar, is strategically highlighting Pakistan’s alleged protection of terrorist groups to push for reforms in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action includes diplomatic engagement with key UNSC members to advocate for reform and increased transparency in counter-terrorism measures.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Jaishankar’s remarks are primarily aimed at pressuring the UNSC to implement reforms by exposing Pakistan’s alleged duplicity in counter-terrorism efforts.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The statements are intended to bolster India’s domestic and international image as a victim of terrorism, thereby garnering sympathy and support without expecting immediate UNSC reforms.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to the explicit mention of UNSC gridlock and the call for reform, which aligns with India’s long-standing position on the need for UNSC restructuring.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that Pakistan’s actions are directly influencing UNSC decisions. Another assumption is that UNSC reform is a feasible short-term goal.
– **Red Flags**: Potential cognitive bias includes confirmation bias in interpreting Pakistan’s actions. The absence of direct evidence linking Pakistan to the obstruction of UNSC processes is a critical gap.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical**: Increased tension between India and Pakistan could lead to further regional instability.
– **Economic**: Prolonged UNSC gridlock may affect international cooperation on economic sanctions against terrorist entities.
– **Psychological**: The narrative of victimhood could influence public perception and policy support within India.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with permanent UNSC members to build a coalition for reform, emphasizing transparency and accountability in counter-terrorism.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Successful UNSC reform leading to improved counter-terrorism measures.
  • Worst: Escalation of India-Pakistan tensions without any UNSC reform.
  • Most Likely: Continued diplomatic efforts with incremental progress on UNSC transparency.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Jaishankar
– UNSC members
– TRF (The Resistance Front)
– Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus