Published on: 2025-10-25

Intelligence Report: Ivory Coast votes with Ouattara’s legacy age in focus – The Star Online

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that Alassane Ouattara will secure another term due to the lack of a strong opposition and his track record of economic growth. Confidence in this hypothesis is moderate, given the potential for civil unrest and the historical context of electoral violence. It is recommended to monitor post-election stability and prepare for potential unrest.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Alassane Ouattara will win the election due to his economic achievements and the lack of a viable opposition candidate. This is supported by his popularity, economic growth under his leadership, and the absence of strong challengers.

Hypothesis 2: Despite Ouattara’s economic achievements, the election may lead to significant civil unrest due to dissatisfaction among the youth and historical election violence. This is supported by the skepticism expressed by young voters and the history of election-related violence in Ivory Coast.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– Assumption: Economic growth directly translates to electoral success for Ouattara.
– Red Flag: Historical election violence and recent arrests suggest potential for unrest.
– Blind Spot: The influence of international actors and their potential impact on the election outcome.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– Economic stability may be threatened if post-election unrest occurs, impacting foreign investments and infrastructure projects.
– Potential for escalation into broader civil unrest if opposition groups mobilize effectively.
– Risk of international condemnation if election processes are perceived as unfair or if violence escalates.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor post-election developments closely, particularly in urban centers like Abidjan.
• Engage with local and international stakeholders to promote dialogue and prevent escalation.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Peaceful election and transition, continued economic growth.
  • Worst Case: Widespread unrest leading to economic downturn and international intervention.
  • Most Likely: Ouattara wins, with isolated incidents of unrest that are contained.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Alassane Ouattara
– Laurent Gbagbo
– Tidjane Thiam
– Simone Gbagbo
– Alfred Zi
– Landry Ka
– Chukwuemeka Eze
– Patrick Achi

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, electoral stability, economic growth, civil unrest